The U.S. Military Presence In A Changing Southern Region: Issues and Options (1992) By Ian O. Lesser
 
Two broad developments argue for greater attention to security in NATO's Southern Region -- Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey -- and the Mediterranean as a whole. First, as the direct Soviet threat to Europe evaporates, a range of formerly peripheral concerns have come to the fore. This is not simply a question of relative priorities, but a reflection of new risks flowing from political, demographic, and proliferation trends around the Mediterranean. New approaches to maintaining and bolstering allied capabilities in the Southern Region will help to ensure that the residual U.S. presence in Europe is relevant to emerging European security concerns. Second, recent experience in the Persian Gulf has focused attention on Turkey's unique strategic position and problems. It is likely that scenarios involving the reassurance and reinforcement of Turkey will play an increasingly central role in U.S. and Allied planning. Key elements of change relevant to U.S. strategy and planning for the Southern Region include the following: (1) the growing perception of a threat from the south, flowing from the expansion of fundamentalism in North Africa and the growth of conventional and unconventional arsenals along the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean; (2) the existence of large military arsenals outside the CFE framework, and the relative proximity to Turkey of Soviet (or former Soviet) forces behind the Urals, means that the link between arms control and increased security is least automatic in the Southern Region; (3) as the Southern Region countries (with the exception of Turkey) become more European in their outlook and behavior, it will become more difficult for the United States to rely on bilateral cooperation in crises outside the NATO area; and (4) across the region, there is a strong movement toward the modernization of armed forces, together with a general reorientation of strategy and missions southward.
 
Soft Cover
15 pages
In Fair to Good Condition